Analysis
Sales Forecasting for a SaaS Scale-Up Moving Upmarket
Overview
What this challenge is about.
You are given historical MRR data, enterprise pipeline data (deal size, stage, probability), and churn rates. Your task is to build a dynamic Excel model that forecasts MRR using separate components: PLG growth (using a trend + seasonality model) and enterprise deals (using a probabilistic model). Implement a VBA macro to run a Monte Carlo simulation (at least 1000 iterations) that outputs a distribution of possible MRR outcomes. Success means the model produces a 90% confidence interval for MRR and identifies key drivers of uncertainty.
The Brief
What you'll do, and what you'll demonstrate.
Develop a spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation to forecast MRR for a SaaS company transitioning from PLG to enterprise sales.
Earning criteria — what you'll demonstrate
- Build a multi-component forecasting model in Excel
- Implement Monte Carlo simulation using VBA
- Analyze uncertainty and sensitivity in business forecasts
- Apply SaaS metrics (MRR, churn, LTV) in a spreadsheet model
Program Fit
Where this fits in your program.
Sharpens the same skills your degree expects you to demonstrate.
Skills
Skills you'll demonstrate.
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Roles this prepares you for.
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