Forecast TaskFlow's Recurring Revenue Through Its Enterprise Pivot
Overview
What this challenge is about.
Build a Monte Carlo forecast of TaskFlow’s recurring revenue from self-serve and enterprise data to earn a verifiable certificate.
The scenario
TaskFlow is a 40-person business-to-business software company that spent two years growing through self-serve product-led growth and six months ago launched an enterprise sales motion to win larger, salesperson-negotiated contracts. This transition makes future revenue genuinely two-headed: a smooth organic base plus a lumpy, probabilistic stream of big deals.
The Brief
What you'll do, and what you'll demonstrate.
Forecast TaskFlow's monthly recurring revenue for the next 12 months with a quantified uncertainty range, separating organic product-led growth from probabilistic enterprise deals.
Earning criteria — what you'll demonstrate
- Derive core subscription metrics (monthly recurring revenue, growth, seasonality, churn) directly from raw account-level data
- Structure a forecast as separable, independently testable components rather than a single opaque formula
- Implement a Monte Carlo simulation that turns point estimates into a defensible probability distribution
- Quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty, including which inputs matter most
- Document modeling assumptions so a non-technical stakeholder can audit and trust the result
Program Fit
Where this fits in your program.
Sharpens the same skills your degree expects you to demonstrate.
Aligned coursework coming soon.
Skills
Skills you'll demonstrate.
Each one shows up on your verified credential.
- Excel Modeling
Apply excel modeling to solve real industry problems and demonstrate production-level capability.
- Vba Programming
Apply vba programming to solve real industry problems and demonstrate production-level capability.
- Monte Carlo Simulation
Apply monte carlo simulation to solve real industry problems and demonstrate production-level capability.
- Forecasting
Apply forecasting to solve real industry problems and demonstrate production-level capability.
- Saas Metrics
Apply saas metrics to solve real industry problems and demonstrate production-level capability.
Careers
Career paths this challenge builds toward
Completing this challenge demonstrates skills that transfer directly to these roles:
Revenue / FP&A Analyst
Financial planning teams live in spreadsheet models that forecast recurring revenue under uncertainty. This challenge mirrors that work end to end: deriving subscription metrics, structuring a defensible forecast, and presenting a confidence range leadership can plan against.
This challenge sharpens
- excel-modeling
- forecasting
- saas-metrics
Quantitative / Simulation Analyst
Roles that price risk or model scenarios rely on Monte Carlo methods to convert uncertain inputs into distributions. Building and validating a 1,000-iteration simulation here is the core competency such teams screen for, alongside reproducible, auditable code.
This challenge sharpens
- monte-carlo-simulation
- vba-programming
- forecasting
SaaS Business Analyst
Operators tracking a product-led-to-enterprise transition need someone who can read raw subscription data, compute recurring revenue and churn, and translate pipeline probability into a revenue outlook. This challenge bridges directly into that analytical, metrics-fluent function.
This challenge sharpens
- saas-metrics
- excel-modeling
- monte-carlo-simulation